The dean of the UTRGV School of Medicine believes strict stay-at-home orders will likely lead to the coronavirus spread peaking in early May in the Rio Grande Valley. 

Dr. John Krouse said models he is seeing suggest the Valley is coming up to its COVID-19 peak time.

“The latest models I’m seeing coming out of the state are looking at a peak, perhaps in early May,” Krouse said during a virtual/online town hall this week hosted by U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. “The other models suggest it could be sooner.”

Saying he was “very guardedly optimistic,” Krouse said the early steps taken by county judges and mayors in the Valley has been the key to containing the coronavirus. 

“I think our local leadership has done a tremendous job in acting promptly and acting in an aggressive way,” he said. “The models we are seeing suggests that we may do well given the severity of the problems we are seeing in other places.”

Inverventions show promise

Other models and statistical data released this week offer additional perspectives on COVID-19 and the Valley. Scientists and researchers at the University of Texas studied health care projections for 22 urban areas in the state. One of those areas was the Brownsville-Harlingen/Cameron County section of the Valley.

The projections from that study show that if no intervention had been put in place there would have been between 1,000 and 1,500 deaths in the county due to coronavirus by Aug. 17. School closures and 90 percent reduction or contact via stay-at-home orders lowers that number to 250 deaths.

The UT model also states there would have been up to 75,000 COVID-19 cases in the Brownsville/Harlingen area by May 25 with no intervention measures. The projected number drops to fewer than 25,000 cases if strict measures put to place hold through April and into May. In this scenario, reaching the 25,000 mark would not come until Aug. 17.