State & RGV Economies Outpacing National Trends

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State & RGV Economies Outpacing National Trends

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Salvador Contreras of UTRGV gives an overview of banking and investment trends at the RGV Partnership Economic Outlook Luncheon.
Salvador Contreras of UTRGV gives an overview of banking and investment trends at the RGV Partnership Economic Outlook Luncheon.

The Texas economy has regained its jobs lost from COVID-19-related challenges and the Rio Grande Valley has largely done the same.

Roberto Coronado, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, made that assessment recently at the RGV Partnership Economic Outlook Luncheon in Harlingen. Joining Coronado were a roster of speakers that gave insights on banking, retailing, housing and other key economic indicators heading into the remainder of 2022. 

Roberto Coronado predicts a continuation in robust jobs growth in Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in 2022.
Roberto Coronado predicts a continuation in robust jobs growth in Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in 2022.

Texas is among the few states nationally, Coronado said, that has regained the volume of jobs lost during the pandemic. The state, in fact, has more total jobs today than it had pre-COVID, Coronado said. His data showed Texas has six percent more jobs today than it had before COVID. One can say the same for the McAllen-area market. The McAllen metro area has 12 percent more jobs than existed before the pandemic. The Brownsville market has regained about 84 percent of jobs lost during 2020.

The Valley economy in terms of jobs regained post-2020 is doing better than Laredo and El Paso, which are running job deficits larger than Brownsville, Coronado said. Texas as a whole experienced 5.5 percent job growth in 2021. This outpaced national numbers. Coronado said the same will be seen this year but the rise will be a more modest one.

“The labor market is recovering rapidly,” he said. “We’ll continue to see robust growth in 2022, but not quite at the levels we saw last year.”

Inflation surged nationally by nearly six percent last year as demand for goods and products exceeded supply inventories, he said. Coronado predicted inflation will trend downward in 2022, finishing the year at about three percent. He added, “we expect inflation to be in check by 2023.”

A decline in inflation would provide an added boost to a Valley economy that is already thriving, the conference speakers said. Deborah Cordova, an Edinburg-based attorney who focuses on corporate and transactional law, showed slides with the following information:

  • Starr County has seen $20 million in development of national franchises since 2021.
  • Mission will add 900 residential lots in master-planned communities in the next 24 months.
  • Harlingen added 49,000 square feet of retail space in 2020.
  • Brownsville via SpaceX has leased over 100,000 square feet of manufacturing space at the Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport.

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